The fantasy of a coalition balance is over. Kicillof and Cristina's plans will prevail. Alberto faces a challenge that will define the rest of his term.
The re-editing of the conflict with farmers is the symptom of a deep turn that is close to being consummated in Alberto FernÃ¡ndez's government. The President defines himself as a social democrat, but his administration stacked a series of decisions in which the vision of Axel Kicillof and Cristina Kirchner predominates.
If that seems like a deja vu, it is because it reminds us of the former president's second government term, in which the current governor of the province of Buenos Aires was able to deploy his economic program.
The halt on tariff raises with the emergence of the subsidy spending issue, the closure of agricultural product exports, taxes, are all part of an agenda that includes the discussion on the waterway nationalization, while shaping of a new version of farming conflict takes place.
Perhaps due to profession incompetence, Alberto imagined that the difficulties faced by Cristina during the second term - when he was already gone - were due to lack of expertise in the political operation of the government's decisions. An inconvenience that should be easily solved now that he is head of state.
This represents the underestimation of the ideological discussion, or if you will, the fantasy that everything can be solved with some skill and good coffee. On the other hand, "In life, you need to choose," is the motto Cristina used in her re-election campaign. Two different ways to understand politics.
If the impending removal of the acting solicitor is added to the current context, the reference to Cristina is clear, while Alberto is missing in the context.
During the campaign he showed he was a great articulator of an alliance to overcome Kirchnerism that included Governors, Peronist Unions and Sergio Massa. A center-wing oriented coalition that considered the farming conflict over.
Alberto sought to recompose the relationship with the core area of agricultural production in Argentina, CÃ³rdoba, Santa Fe and Entre RÃos, especially the first two. He understood that return to power would be a long-lost dream without the improvement of electoral competitiveness in these provinces. It was a successful political operation and he sat at the Casa Rosada. But of course, then the time to choose came up.
The strenuous dynamics of Alberto FernÃ¡ndez's meetings with the farming leadership during the conflict of 125, all in vain, explains the limits of political operation in the face of decisions that cut into the economic structure. The fight was defined by one vote, not by consensus.
Campo, Santa Fe and CÃ³rdoba, make up a triangle that beat Kirchnerism with essential defeats. It was mounted on the idea that Macri got the impossible votes he needed to evict Peronism from power. We'll have to wait and see what will come out of this historic repetition.
But what is remarkable is not the emergence of Cristina's agenda but the lack of ideas from the Government to strengthen an overcoming synthesis, which encompasses the positions of the former president. There's no point in getting mad at someone because they behave the way they think, but the contrary leads us to wonder what Alberto's ideas are.
Is he adding fiscal balance to the social agenda of Kirchnerism? Giving more space and valorization to private initiative? Moving a few steps away from China and Russia, or rather, including America in that geopolitical ballet? We do not know, among other things we ignore because the Government has been a little lazy in generating the scenarios to discuss the course of Peronism in the 21st century.
At times, Alberto seems to act more like a prime minister urged to suture tensions than as a President who favors debates and lets them flow, who oversees and chooses, who listens, processes and defines, which is not the same as handing out parcels of power.
In other words, rather than supporting or just handing it over to GuzmÃ¡n, perhaps Alberto should generate political platforms - partisan conferences, program debates with governors, etc. - to defend his ideas. And if he doesn't have any, use that absence as an opportunity to encourage discussion and debate regarding the future.
Perhaps, more than just suffering from the fight for political power, we are witnessing the drama from the lack of new ideas.
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