Brazil is going through a full week of tensions. The resignation of a Diplomat and the Minister of Defense as well as the surprise departure of the three commanders of the Armed Forces exacerbated a crisis that has been growing in the face of the uncontrolled pandemic, which is bringing chaos to the country amid uncontrolled deaths and infections.

True to his style, Bolsonaro seeks to be surrounded by loyalists to ratify his stance even if it involves squandering some of his political leaders for the future. In the meantime, agreements with the 'Centrao' remain and take away the possibility of an impeachment.

Tensions with the military showed that there is no homogeneity in the military and some do not want to see the prestige lost to the health catastrophe that the government has been facing. Outgoing Defense Minister Fernando Azevedo and the three leaders who resigned would be an example of that.

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The president appointed General Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira as Head of the Military to replace outgoing Edson Leal Pujol. The new commander leaves the post of Head of the Military's Health Department and is wary of taking a different look at the pandemic, as, in a recent interview that was not well seen by the government in which he said they are preparing for the second wave and taking measures considered to be very different from those promoted by Bolsonaro. "It seems like a defeat for the president, who wanted the Military Commander of the northeast, Marco Antonio Freire Gomes, to take over," a source close to military revealed to LPO.

General Walter Souza Braga Netto during his inauguration as Defense Minister.

Moreover, in the Navy, Admiral Almir Garnier took over, being close to Azevedo's previous defense administration and seen as a moderate Bolsonarist; and in the Air Force, another commander close to Bolsonaro was sworn in: Brigadier Carlos Almeida Baptista Jr.

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LPO spoke with Thiago Rodrigues, a political scientist at Fluminense Federal University, who said that "there are those who argue that what forced Azevedo and the commanders to leave the government was Bolsonaro's pressure to go against the Supreme Court of Justice, and Bolsonaro's intention to prevent containment measures applied by local governors such as lockdown and other social isolation measures, as well as the pressure on the military leaders regarding Sergio Moro's case , which will be re-examined by the Court on April 14." "If Moro's suspension is confirmed and the Lava Jato and Lula's convictions are suspended, that would be a heavy blow to Bolsonaro," he added.

In turn, the specialist noted that "Bolsonaro is very afraid, pressured and weakened because the departure of the military commanders is a sign that there is no harmony within the government. There are commanders who support him, but not all of them do."

As in every crisis that can affect the president's legitimacy, the figure of the vice-president, Hamilton Mourao, stands out, and as previously reported by LPO, is no longer trusted by Bolsonaro, who is considering leaving him out of the picture in 2022. In that respect, Rodrigues noted that "Mourao is enigmatic as always, maintaining a strategic position in the background, while increasingly gaining strength as an alternative to Bolsonaro".

Bolsonaro is very afraid, pressured and weakened because the departure of the military commanders is a sign that there is no harmony within the government. There are commanders who support him, but not all of them do.

One of the versions that circulated by different media outlets in Brazil was that the three outgoing commanders did not want to be part of a "coup adventure" implying that the president was willing to execute an auto-coup.

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Rodriguez added: "I don't think Bolsonaro wanted to strike an auto-coup, but there are hypotheses that this movement has been prepared so that, in case he loses the election, as the polls show, he may intend to prepare the ground for an auto-coup next year." "That would be arranged with the military police, in something similar to what happened in Bolivia with the riots and insurgencies, and strong enough for military intervention," he added.

The new military leaders of Brazil, the head of the Navy, Admiral Almir Garnier; the Chief of the Army, General Paulo Sergio and the Chief of the Air Force, Brigadier Carlos de Almeida Baptista Jr, during his assumption of the Ministry of Defense in Brasilia.

The expert highlighted the figure of the brand new Defense Officer, Walter Souza Braga Netto, who was the Federal Intervention Officer in the public security department of the state of Rio de Janeiro during Michel Temer's government and has contact with military police and militias. "It is possible that Bolsonaro will want to engage in an auto-coup next year," Thiago Rodrigues insisted.

For now, the debate focuses on what capacity Bolsonaro will have to prevent the growing discontent of a military wing from bringing future problems.

"That would be arranged with the military police, in something similar to what happened in Bolivia with the riots and insurgencies, and strong enough for military intervention,"

A source with access to senior military commanders told LPO that "they are all silent and very concerned" and revealed that the generals of the three forces are confident that the new leaders will not be driven by politics, which is not shared by the colonels who fear a stronger government intervention.

However, this crisis clearly shows that the military party is a vital part of the political system that seeks to transcend the figure of Bolosonaro to become a manager for Brazil's public affairs.